Some Disjointed Thoughts on South Carolina

Gingrich wins. Romney loses. It’s difficult to state how much of an upset this is. Consider this. About a week ago, Gingrich was dead in the water, having lost both Iowa and New Hampshire. His earlier December rise was deflated, he was running low on money, and polling in second in South Carolina. Then, what literally happened overnight, he came back to win South Carolina in a four person race by decisive margins. Now, he’s leading in former Romney strongholds such as Florida. Romney’s sense of inevitability is gone. What the hell is going on?

Some points.

1) Money matters, except when it doesn’t.

If you talk to anyone on politics, they’ll always say some variation of this classic line: “Man, if only we could get the money out of politics, then politicians would care more about the people.” It’s doubtful that most politicians will ever care about “the people” but underneath this statement is this idea that money and only money corrupts our political system and thwarts the will of the people. I’m not going to deny that money plays a big role in politics. That’s pretty obvious. But I do think people overstate the importance of money and downplay other factors. Ideas matter. Candidates matter. Speeches and debates matter. Retail politics, face to face interaction, kissing babies, these things matter. If money were all that mattered, Romney would have won Iowa and South Carolina, since he and his super PACs spent the most in those two states out of all of the candidates. But Gingrich’s message, whatever it was, got through despite not having money on his side.

2) People don’t like the media.

Part of Gingrich’s rise can be explained by the two debates held in Charleston and Myrtle Beach in the week before the debate. In these two debates, Gingrich was on the offensive against Romney and Obama, but his most effective hits were against the moderators themselves. Consider this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owI91EP2Abc

Gingrich gets asked about the details of his ugly relationship with his second wife, Marianne. He turns the question into an attack against the media as a whole, and boy did it work. Within the Republican Party, there is a deep dislike and distrust of the mainstream media. Conservatives argue that the media is biased against their viewpoints, and rightfully so. But I think this traditional dislike of the mainstream media is beginning to stretch across party lines. Increasingly, I see moderates and especially liberal Democrats skeptical or wary of the media. I don’t think an attack the media strategy can win him the election, but I do think it’s not as damaging to his standing among independents and Democrats, whereas previously it may have been. Expect him to keep doing it.

3) Romney has problems.

I had a debate with a friend the other night over the viability of Romney. Coming from the industrial Midwest, I think Romney has huge issues with Bain Capital and his taxes. His defense with regards to these two issues has been lacking. No, scratch that. It’s been piss poor. Using “rah rah capitalism” as a defense for shutting down factories and paying a lower tax rate (15%) than many in the middle class isn’t only lame, it’s ineffective. Republicans have a real chance of sweeping the Midwest, especially as blue collar whites defect from a party that is increasingly hostile to their culture. Romney kills that chance unless he comes up with a better defense. His nomination and election to the Presidency is far from inevitable.

4) Don’t misunderestimate Gingrich.

Think back to 2004. Democrats were running against a fairly unpopular guy by the name of George W. Bush. They thought that the election would be a walkover, given the state of the economy, weariness with Republican governance, two wars, etc. Thinking back to this time, many Democrats whom I spoke with thought that there was no way Bush could win again. Guess what? He did. In politics, confidence can quickly become arrogance, which becomes hubris, which leads to inactivity and failure. I see many on the left laughing at the Gingrich candidacy, and perhaps rightfully so. He polls the worst against Obama and has terrible favorability ratings. Yet, I think they underestimate Gingrich at their peril. The man has come back from the dead twice, well actually three times, and is going toe to toe with the feared and strong Romney organization. My advice to Democrats out there? Stay vigilant.