Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Sex, Gas, and Momentum


 Before I begin, let’s take a look at two graphs, shall we?

First this:

From the Huffington Post


And second, this:
From TalkingPointsMemo



Taken together, they tell a story. A formerly weakened Obama is regaining his strength and momentum and is looking increasingly strong against a bloodied and generally disliked Romney. There are lots of arguments for why this is so. An unpopular Congress, a recovering economy, Republican divisions, etc are all accurate explanations for the turnaround, but I think there is something else going on.

With the Catholic Contraception Craziness, the debate is increasingly shifting away from the economy, debt, and deficits to social issues, particularly birth control. Democrats have been successful in playing on popular preconceptions of Republicans as earnest social warriors by turning the fight over mandates in insurance to one of Republicans opposing birth control.

In general, the Republican message over the past few months has been muddied. In 2010, the GOP was very successful in focusing, almost laser like, on spending and the economy, and won big because of it. But now, discussions over arcane social policies, even if their actual positions have been misrepresented, are confusing and alienating voters. Think about it. You’re 45, unemployed, with three kids stuck in a poor school. You want a job, you’re worried about the future for your children, blah blah blah you know the deal. You turn on the television to see people talking about contraception. How is this stereotypical median voter supposed to relate?

Combine this with the fact that the GOP is in a controlled civil war. I say controlled, because I have the feeling that the disagreements between the ideological wings of the Republican Party will likely die down once a nominee is chosen. The splits are going to last as long as the nomination process continues. Multiple candidates mean multiple messages, preventing the GOP from coalescing around a singular message.

So Obama benefits. He has the momentum. 2012 is on lock for him.

Except it isn’t.

One of the greatest mistakes of political prognosticators is to assume that current trends will go on ad infinitum. Tomorrow will be like today. But the election isn’t until November. That’s about nine months away. The way things are going today won’t be the way things are going on in November.

Momentum eventually gives way. Given the choice between momentum in the beginning of a political race or the end, a wise candidate (or his handlers) will always pick momentum towards the end. Elections are not a sum total of past polling; they are a snapshot of popular support in a moment.

If social issues are in play now, they won’t be an issue going forward.

What could arrest Obama’s momentum?

Gas prices.

Check out this:



We could have the potential for a huge gas price spike, just before the elections. Prediction time.

By the time November rolls around, the economy, specifically jobs and energy prices, will be on the forefront. The contraception brouhaha, and Obama’s poll bounce from it, will be long forgotten. 

Saturday, February 11, 2012

A further point on rights…



While pimping my blog out to my friends, a particularly astute friend of mine, a Mr. Brett Holton, raised what I think is a good point. Let me quote what he said (it was on facebook chat, so forgive both him and me for the choppiness):

In relation to the contraception proposal, does a government have the inherent obligation to fund a person's rights? A right to contraception, in my mind, does not equate to "buy me the pill, or you're oppressing me."
That to me is like saying "the government isn't buying my subscription to the New York Times, they're limiting my freedom of the press"

Brett raises a good point here, and it’s another question I have. Again, let us put aside the issue of a right to contraception. We’ll pretend that I am agnostic to that right, and besides, it’s not what I am questioning. I am more concerned about the language of rights, and their inherent meaning in our modern society. As Brett asks, are rights dependent upon funding? Are rights a form of entitlements, or rather, can entitlements be conceived of as rights? Is there a difference between the two? Should different categories of rights hold more sway over others?

Let’s create two groups of rights, call them rights of entitlement and rights of politics. The latter is easy to conceptualize. Think freedom of speech and freedom of religion. This is a more 18th century, traditional conception of rights that involves the absence of government interference. The government allows everyone in their land a right to voice their opinion and engage in politics. Of course, common sense limitations on these rights can be applied, such as restricting shouting fire in a theater.

Entitlement rights are more modern in conception. Let us define entitlement rights as those rights requiring a good or service be provided for you on the basis of some condition. Food, shelter, and water are commonly referred to as rights, on the basis that one needs them to live. Notice that these rights require something be provided to you, not barriers removed. The provision element of these rights means that they are entirely dependent on someone else providing such a good. If someone chooses not to provide such a good, what then? Do such rights require a free provision of such goods, or merely that the person receives the goods. Assume that everyone has a right to food. If someone buys food, are his or her rights fulfilled in the same way as someone getting food for free? Why should they have to buy the food if they have a right to it? If we refuse to pay for that food, does that mean we are oppressors?

I think moral intuition tells us that oppressing someone’s right to free speech and refusing to provide a certain good, say birth control, is not the same level of oppression. The former is far worse than the latter, since it is assumed that the person requiring the birth control can easily buy it. But that doesn’t have to be the case. There is no justification or validation for holding that view. We could easily argue the former, and still be right. Who is to say that providing birth control is less important than freedom of speech?

This example raises the point of a hierarchy of rights. But, I still lack, perhaps again due to ignorance, a standard or metric for evaluating which rights predominate. Who are we, how are we to say what rights should come first?

I don’t think I’m being very clear. I don’t have a central point, just a lot of questions that I think remain largely unanswered.


Again, for the lazy, it says that countries are no longer copying our constitution and are instead copying constitutions that have guarantees to numerous “entitlement rights.” Here’s a quote:

Americans recognize rights not widely protected, including ones to a speedy and public trial, and are outliers in prohibiting government establishment of religion. But the Constitution is out of step with the rest of the world in failing to protect, at least in so many words, a right to travel, the presumption of innocence and entitlement to food, education and health care. [italics mine]

If you have rights based on the provision of material goods, then you have rights that are not inalienable but are subject to future occurrences and happenstance. What if you have a bad crop year, or your health care system collapses? What if the teachers strike? Are your rights no longer valid? Why do we limit ourselves to these? Surely the human needs entertainment, company, excitement to live. Shouldn’t we consider these rights as well?

If you have a time of austerity, and the government must cut back on public services, is that government oppressing its populace? Did that country become less free? If you believe in entitlements as rights, you have to believes this. Any curtailing of public spending would be a limiting or restriction of rights, and conversely any expansion in public spending would be a broadening, deepening, or improving of rights (the fact that the language is so clunky should give hints as to the veracity of the right as entitlement conception). 

It seems to me that there is no clear point, no clear line that we can draw and say, yes these are rights and these are not. Instead, it is based on whim and convention. Whatever society deems crucial to having, then it is a right. 

Friday, February 10, 2012

Am I right about rights? I don't know, let me write about rights...


As the economy begins to slightly improve, the nation has surprisingly refocused itself on social issues. I say surprisingly because while there has been growth in the economy, this growth has been very weak and could easily collapse given another external shock. Regardless, the main issue in the news has been the Obama administrations kerfuffle over mandated insurance contraceptive coverage and the Catholic Church’s subsequent revolt.

I urge you to google a few news stories on the issue, but if you are too lazy to do that, here is a quick summary:

As a part of Obamacare, employers now are mandated to provide contraceptive coverage in their insurance plans. To this the Catholic Church, particularly the bishops, have objected, arguing that forcing them to provide an insurance plan that allows for contraceptives is wrong, since it mandates them to pay for something that is against their religious beliefs. A tentative compromise has been reached, with the contraceptive provisions now being offered free of charge, relieving Catholic organizations from directly paying for the contraceptives. Yet, the compromise is a peculiar one, since the main objection the Catholic Church had, paying for contraceptives, hasn’t really been addressed. The payment is now indirect, rather than direct.

That’s not what I want to talk about, though. I think a more interesting discussion is the language and use of the words “right” and “rights.” I am not feigning ignorance, but I really have no idea as to what constitutes a right. Or rather, I think I understand what a large portion of society means when they say something is a right, but I don’t understand the justification for this definition.

Allow me to explain, using this article as a basis.


In the article, Mr. Sharpton asserts that access to contraceptives is a right. He builds his case by stating over and over again that access to contraception is a right, therefore it should be unabridged. Never mind the fact that the issue that Catholics have is not over whether women should have access to contraceptives, but whether they, the Church, should be mandated to provide these contraceptives. No, what is curious about this article, and the general line of argument it seems to represent, is this: as long as you claim that something is a right, then you have the rhetorical high ground and it is now the job for your opponent to argue why this right should be limited. Given that the American populace is pretty keen on rights, whatever they may be, this argument usually works since people, perhaps for the best, are hesitant to curtail rights.

But the rhetorical employment of rights to justify and defend a policy is a curious event; one which I think is becoming more and more common. Twenty years ago, few would argue that gays had a right to marriage (an aside, but it is interesting to note that it was only recently, within the last fifteen years or so, that the gay community has come around to gay marriage. See Andrew Sullivan and his efforts on this front for more information). Now it is increasingly commonly accepted that a right to gay marriage exists. This also applies to areas such as animal rights, abortion rights, transsexual rights, birth control rights, immigration rights, and discrimination rights. My point isn’t that these rights are bad. I’m holding off on value judgments for this essay. My point is instead that there seems to be an increasing amount of rights now coming into acceptance.

Rights are fluid and seem to change with the shifting social mores of society. Given this, why should we hold them to such esteem? From where do rights gain their value? Why should we pay special heed to rights? If there is this fluidity towards rights, can rights go out of existence? If we as a society can create new rights, can we also destroy old ones? I do not see why not.

I think there are four different arguments for what I am going to call the legitimacy of rights. By legitimacy, I mean why rational individuals should respect rights and protect them both as a society and as a democratic government. Here they are:

Rights as duties: This comes from the deontological ethics of Kant and others. In such a theory, rights function as the correlative of duties. If someone has a duty to do something, then someone has a right to expect it. Accordingly, if no one has a duty to provide you with something, then you have no right to expect it. Such an understanding of rights is pretty alien to our American understanding. Since I know the least about this conception of rights, I’m going to leave it alone and let someone more knowledgeable than I tackle it. We can put it aside at the moment, given its irrelevance.

Rights from God: This is the traditional Lockean conception of rights, which is what our constitution is based off of. Since all men are the property of God, and are endowed with certain properties as a result of their being property of God, men are limited in what they can do to one another. You have the right to liberty since I, as a man, do not have the privilege to violate the property (i.e. you) of God. This I think is the most internally logical and consistent, yet it has a critical weakness. It presupposes the existence of God. Take away a widespread cultural religiosity, with a shared common culture and therefore a shared understanding of common rights and the whole thing falls apart. Rights stemming from God only apply if you and I agree that God exists. If we take away that commonality, we have nowhere to go.

Rights stemming from Dignity: This is what you have when you take God out of the equation. Human beings have fundamental rights, it is argued, because they have dignity and worth. A variation of this argument states that since human beings are the only creatures with reason, they should be valued as such. Essentially identical in its formulation to the second conception of rights, it replaces God with man. The result though, is critically different. A different conception of where rights come from (God vs. Man) leads to obvious differences in the types and categories of rights. I think this too is pretty weak. What external force or metric gives human beings dignity? To give something dignity, this qualification or judgment must be external from the actor that is under consideration. I cannot say I have dignity. Others must say first that I have dignity, only then do I possess it. Likewise with humanity. We cannot just declare that we have dignity, and therefore now do we possess it. It’s meaningless to say so. The variation of this argument, dealing with reason, is equally problematic since it is quite obvious that not all human beings have equal use of reason. Babies, the elderly, and mentally deficient people are all lacking in their faculties of reason. Would we say that they have less rights resulting from that? If we were consistent with this theory, we would. But such judgment would run counter to people’s moral intuition, and rightfully so.

Rights stemming from convention: Here we have what is essentially the modern understanding of rights. Under this conception, rights are fluid, coming and though it is never said but can be presumed, going. Rights come into being by two ways. Either a majority of a society agrees that something should be a right, or the intellectual, political, or moral leaders of a society deem that something should be a right. Gay marriage came into being through the latter method, but is now being ratified by a pro-gay marriage majority. Such an understanding of rights removes their sacredness. Even the weak understanding of human rights as resulting from dignity gives rights a level of sacredness, of respect. If rights are social conventions, albeit important and essential social conventions, where do they get their sacredness from? Why should I pay any attention to rights, especially if other social conventions are being violated? Rights devolve from something externally recognized, and thus tangibly real, into a mere rhetorical tool. What rights are recognized is dependent upon pure and total power. The political realm becomes a battlefield, with each ideological side struggling to define their preferred policies as rights. If they can do so, they win the debate, since few are willing to openly advocate the abridgement of a right.
            There is another concern. Traditional rights, such as freedom of speech, freedom of religion, etc are no longer sacrosanct. People that believe in rights as highly dignified social conventions presume that society inevitably and inexorably moves towards progress, with an ever widening societal understanding of rights. But is that really the case? Must, does, society always move towards progress? Does the arc of history always bend towards justice? I don’t think that’s the case. I think it is an assumption, and a dangerous one at that.

So where does that leave us? I don’t know. I like rights, and I want to see them justified, but I don’t see how one does that without an external objective shared morality or understanding. I pose this not as an argument, as I have no side to advocate. Rather, I write all of this as a question, a desperate plea that someone out there can offer me a sound and internally consistent definition, defense, and justification of rights.

Thanks for reading this!!!! I hope I was clear and not babbling too much :D

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

When He Eats, It Is The Food That is Scared

The last two posts are pretty dense. So too lighten the mood, we turn to patron Saint of The Revolutionary Reactionaries... 
Ron Swanson from "Parks and Recreation": http://www.drunkronswanson.com/

A Kitchen Sink of Quinine Water, Or, Why the Free Press Is Both Necessary and Dangerous (Part 2, in which the dangers inherent in free market journalism are discussed and illustrated)

You may want to read PART 1 of this entry first, click the link.

News agencies generate revenue through traffic.  Subscription charges and advertising services are the two main revenue streams for any news agency.  Both are a function of readership/viewership.  The more readers or viewers (readers, hereafter) a news agency has, the more they make in subscription charges and the more they are able to charge for advertising space.  One way to gain more readers is to present the news more accurately and more coherently than your competitors.  This is the good side of free market journalism.  Market competition should drive the quality of reporting higher and higher.  But there is another way to gain readers.  Rather than attempting to outcompete your rivals across all demographics, you can simply corner a niche in the market.  Democrats might not like your presentation of the news, but as long as Republicans prefer it to the alternative presentation, your business will be fine.  This is generally known as “narrowcasting”, as opposed to “broadcasting”.  The danger of narrowcasting is that the reader will naturally be drawn to those news sources that present the news in a way that reinforces their pre-existing beliefs, regardless of whether that presentation is entirely accurate.  Much of the work studying narrowcasting focuses on its effects on domestic politics.  The concern there is that narrowcasting may be leading to an increasingly radicalized electorate and making compromise increasingly difficult.  But what about the way narrowcasting affects the reporting of international news and the way we understand broad historical or societal trends? 
The unseasonably warm February weather today in Northern Virginia reminded me that it has only been a year since the “Arab Spring” of 2011.  Yet this story feels like old news.  The dominant narrative in the media is that the people in dictatorships across the Arab world were upset  by the limited freedom they enjoyed under their repressive regimes, and when that unrest reached critical mass early last year, an civil uprising in Tunisia sparked a series of protests and uprisings across the region, which struggled to replace their dictatorships with free societies, and ultimately, inevitably, succeeded.  The continued struggle in Syria is treated almost like an epilogue, and the media consensus is that it is only a matter of time until Syria falls to the wave of democratization.  It’s a nice story.  It provides a clear overarching narrative that helps us explain and understand an incredibly tumultuous time.  Even better, it does so with a narrative with which we are all familiar; people thirst for freedom, chafe under immoral authoritarian rule, realize that democracy is the best option, and rise up to demand their rights in a democratic system.  Unfortunately, it is also a gross oversimplification of the facts, and is not accurate.   Egypt is not now reveling in the sweet sun of democratic freedom, they have only replaced their authoritarian military dictator with an authoritarian military junta.  In Libya, Gaddafi is dead, but things are far from stable, and a successful transition to democracy is increasingly uncertain.  The upcoming elections have once again divided the tribal leaders, moderate nationalist Islamists, and radical Islamists who were united against Gaddafi.  The causes of the uprisings varied from country to country, town to town, person to person.  The fact that a drought in 2010 caused Russia to ban grain exports, on which the region is hugely reliant, is lost in the narrative of a people yearning for freedom. 
Complexity is challenging.  Complexity reminds us how small we are, and how limited our understanding is.  Nobody wants to hear about complexity.  So we don’t.  We go to the news sources that confirm our understanding of the world, and the news sources, knowing this, cater their presentation of the news to conform to that understanding.  But the world isn’t simple.  The world is usually pretty complex.  It is especially complex during times of revolution or unrest.  If we try to oversimplify the world, we will invariably discover that our predictions were inaccurate, and find ourselves committing time and effort to fruitless, misguided acts, convinced of their “inevitable” success. 

A Kitchen Sink of Quinine Water, Or, Why the Free Press Is Both Necessary and Dangerous (Part 1, in which the necessity of private news organizations is discussed)


It’s easy to get caught up in the hectic, day to day milieu of modern society.  The news is disseminated far faster, and to a much wider audience than it has been at any point in history.  Every day there is more new information available to us on-line and on-air than no one person could possibly follow, let alone interpret, all of it.  This problem is compounded by the economic reality that most of us can only afford to set aside a few hours a day to get up to speed and reflect on the day’s news.  Fortunately, the vast majority of the events that happen every day around the world aren’t of any value to us.  We therefore rely on filters to pluck out the events that affect our lives, the events that we care about, and present them to us in an easily understandable form.  These filters are newspapers, television news, news agregator websites (i.e. Drudge Report), blogs, twitter, etc... .  Think of a fire hose and your kitchen sink.  The fire hose provides much more water, but you can’t drink from the fire hose.  Your kitchen sink filters the massive amount of water flowing throwing the public water main down to a manageable amount. 
But reporting (or filtering and presenting) the news costs time and money.   Either government or private industry must provide the capital to cover the costs of reporting the news.  News, especially in a democracy, is a public good.  A well-informed, well educated citizenry is vital to the success of democracy.  We might, therefore, be tempted to let Government take responsibility for providing the news.  However, this leaves the country open to the greater threat of deliberate misinformation by the government.  In modern America, it is widely and rightly accepted that a free press is the greatest defense of liberty. 
But a free press brings with it its own set of problems.  If news agencies cannot rely upon public funding to cover their operating costs, then they must turn to private investors.  Private news agencies are like quinine.  Malaria is a horrible, often fatal disease.  For years, quinine was the only known treatment for malaria, but quinine is poisonous.  The quinine killed the malaria parasites, but it also poisoned the patient, often resulting in terrible side effects.  Yet compared to the alternative (dying painfully of malaria) the side effects were deemed acceptable.  All major private news agencies are, at their most basic level, corporations.  They all have a responsibility to their shareholders to generate profits, or, at the very least, to cover their own operating costs.  They may also have a moral obligation to fairly and accurately report the news, but the fact remains that unless they can generate enough revenue to continue operating, their fairness and accuracy will be short lived. They must therefore operate with one eye on their bottom line. 

PART 2 of this entry. click the link