Before I begin, let’s take a look at two graphs, shall we?
First this:
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From the Huffington Post
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And second, this:
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| From TalkingPointsMemo |
Taken together, they tell a story. A formerly weakened Obama
is regaining his strength and momentum and is looking increasingly strong
against a bloodied and generally disliked Romney. There are lots of arguments
for why this is so. An unpopular Congress, a recovering economy, Republican
divisions, etc are all accurate explanations for the turnaround, but I think
there is something else going on.
With the Catholic Contraception Craziness, the debate is increasingly shifting away from the economy, debt, and deficits to social issues, particularly birth control. Democrats have been successful in playing on popular preconceptions of Republicans as earnest social warriors by turning the fight over mandates in insurance to one of Republicans opposing birth control.
In general, the Republican message over the past few months has been muddied. In 2010, the GOP was very successful in focusing, almost laser like, on spending and the economy, and won big because of it. But now, discussions over arcane social policies, even if their actual positions have been misrepresented, are confusing and alienating voters. Think about it. You’re 45, unemployed, with three kids stuck in a poor school. You want a job, you’re worried about the future for your children, blah blah blah you know the deal. You turn on the television to see people talking about contraception. How is this stereotypical median voter supposed to relate?
Combine this with the fact that the GOP is in a controlled
civil war. I say controlled, because I have the feeling that the disagreements
between the ideological wings of the Republican Party will likely die down once
a nominee is chosen. The splits are going to last as long as the nomination
process continues. Multiple candidates mean multiple messages, preventing the
GOP from coalescing around a singular message.
So Obama benefits. He has the momentum. 2012 is on lock for
him.
Except it isn’t.
One of the greatest mistakes of political prognosticators is
to assume that current trends will go on ad infinitum. Tomorrow will be like
today. But the election isn’t until November. That’s about nine months away.
The way things are going today won’t be the way things are going on in
November.
Momentum eventually gives way. Given the choice between
momentum in the beginning of a political race or the end, a wise candidate (or
his handlers) will always pick momentum towards the end. Elections are not a
sum total of past polling; they are a snapshot of popular support in a moment.
If social issues are in play now, they won’t be an issue going forward.
What could arrest Obama’s momentum?
Gas prices.
Check out this:
We could have the potential for a huge gas price spike, just
before the elections. Prediction time.
By the time November rolls around, the economy, specifically
jobs and energy prices, will be on the forefront. The contraception brouhaha,
and Obama’s poll bounce from it, will be long forgotten.
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