Wednesday, February 20, 2013

The Google Glasses are both Gauche and Evil


 If you know me, you’ll know that a core portion of my life involves incessant checking of the Drudge Report. I don’t use it as my only source for news and views, but Matt Drudge’s autistic like constant updating of the nineties-esque site provides me with the needed jolt of sensationalized headlines to get my day going. 

Imagine, then, the scene this morning where upon waking up, I used my smartphone to check the Drudge Report. What did I see staring back at me? The death of humanity, otherwise known as these:



What is this garish monstrosity? The latest design from chronically try-hard Oakley? A pair of glasses linked up with a USB cable?

Nope. This is the first prototype of Google’s entry into the world of hardware and personal computing. The Google Glass is the world’s first device that combines a computer with eyeglasses designed for everyday wear. The full capabilities of the thing are still uncertain, but in this eerie video, the wearer uses the glasses to record video, take photos, perform Google searches, and get directions from the device simply by speaking a command.

Watch that video and check out the rest of the website. Afterwards, record the day and time you witnessed this, so you have for your personal records the exact moment you witnessed the decline and fall of humanity. I’m exaggerating, but only slightly. At the very least, I think we can expect a further coarsening of the culture. How? Supply and demand, baby.

Human beings place value on things that are rare and don’t value things that are common. There are individual exceptions to this rule, but it generally stands. A laptop computer is more valuable than a can of green beans, for example, because a laptop has a large utility value, that is you can do a lot with it, and cans of green beans are relatively common. As something increases in supply, its value declines. Think of salt. During the Roman Empire, the legions guarding the borders of Rome were paid their salaries in salt. Salt was useful in the curing of meats and as a flavor enhancer, but was also rare and difficult to produce. Nowadays, if you’re employer paid you in salt, you throw it in their face and take them to court. Thanks to scientific advancement and industrialized mining techniques, salt is common and cheap and as such we value it less.

To a certain extent, this same general relationship holds to intangibles. A jet-setting business man shrugs at his next flight to exotic Tokyo, while a pasty poor teenager who has never left his mother’s basement would be in a state of rapture at the mere thought of going to the land of Ninetendo and anime. The first moments with a new baby are wonderful. Parents like to sit and watch their newborn children learn to talk, walk, and so on. But after a few months, the novelty wears off, and the adorable toddler learning to mouth a few words becomes a mouthy teenager. As the supply of something becomes more common, we devalue the particular thing. A single cupcake brings joy. Ten cupcakes bring pain.

This holds true, I argue, for information. Information is a commodity, like iron or wheat. It, too, has a supply and a demand. Prior to the invention of the printing press, information was rare. There were few books in existence and if a new book were to be made it would have to be copied by hand. Information, as such, had a high value despite a globally illiterate population. Want proof? Observe the strict control the Catholic Church, national governments, and other elites placed on the dissemination of Bibles, ancient texts, and other sources of information. The printing press, in a way, caused one of Europe’s most destructive wars, the Thirty Years War, as Protestantism was able to quickly disseminate throughout northern Europe as a result of its invention.

Now, though, the opposite is true. The supply of information, articles, knowledge, the written word, books, newspapers, everything, has exponentially grown. Thanks to the internet and the computer, we now have reams of data on almost every conceivable topic.

It’s inarguable that the supply of information has increased, but what is more important is the relationship between human beings and information, and the subsequent devaluing of information. We are bombarded with thousands of bits and bytes of data every day, every second. As smartphones, computers, and Google Glasses become more common, this constant stream of information will only quicken. It is simply not possible to process every news story, every new scientific article, and every update and photo and video posted by one of our friends. Accordingly, the value of each of these drops.

I think I could better get my point out by looking to an example. Let’s take health. The amount of studies, research papers, news blurbs, and the like on what is and isn’t healthy is overwhelming. One day, carbohydrates are bad. The next, carbohydrates are good. Eggs will kill you. Eggs are the best thing you can eat. Running every day places too much stress on your joints and wears out your body. Running every day keeps you in good cardio shape. And on and on it goes. For every piece of health advice out there, you can easily within seconds find another piece of advice recommending you do the opposite. What happens to the common Joe and Jane when confronted with all of this? They devalue the information, and simply tune out. The result? A national obesity crisis.

Politics is another example. There’s thousands upon thousands of articles, research reports, and policy papers on any given political topic. You can spend a lifetime reading about something as arcane as the tax code, and you still would not know all that there is to know. How do people respond to this? By devaluing and thus trivializing politics. Our national discourse has been reduced to memes and images encapsulating some half-thought out political point posted on facebook. People post these because they enable to the poster to feel, and show, as if they actually care about civic engagement without having to do any of the real work and effort that such engagement involves. We have thousands of data points on Republicans, Democrats, Mitt Romney, Barack Obama, etc. It’s impossible to process them all, so they great many of us tune out, slink away into our little bubbles, and fall back on innate biases and ideologies.

The explosion of knowledge has caused, paradoxically, it to be devalued. The most potentially informed people in the world become the least informed. This ignorance is not irrational or stupid. It’s a rational response to the saturation of something.

Let’s return to the Google Glass. What this technology promises to do is record every moment of your life. It’s a Faustian bargain in which every emotional, transcendental, or life changing experience can now be safely stored away in high definition. These moments, instead of being cherished memories, become data on a hard drive. Subtly, maybe not noticeably at first, we’ll start to devalue this. I know it goes against my image as an economist, but human beings are more than rational consumers. They have a spiritual side, a spark of consciousness that bends, but never reaches, towards the eternal, the mysterious.

Life, with its wonders, its pitfalls and disasters, its successes, the birth of new babies, the death of the old, marriages, divorces, sex, romance, violence, is a continual process unfolding in real time. To constantly record it, to take it apart and categorize it, to never forget, to eternally capture everything, reduces its charm. There is something to be said for the memory, slightly faded, blurred by time, that is continually recalled into the mind as a source of strength, or nostalgia, or fear. The Google Glass, and the trend that it represents, is a small step, but a step nonetheless, towards man as machine, a biological robot.

Plus they look really bad.

Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Newsflash: GOP is not going to win Hispanics


People are busy. I recognize that. Few have the necessary spare hours per day to devote themselves to closely but accurately following the constant march of political news. Legislators, the people we elect to do exactly this task, don’t even have enough time to read their own legislation. That job responsibility has been largely outsourced to the few hundred staffers who author Congress' legislation.

A civic duty, however, compels people to pay at least some attention to politics. So they read a few article here and there, and occasionally scan an op-ed article. The rise of America’s punditocracy is evidence of this fact. We now have an entire industry dedicated to forming opinion on whatever the political issue of the day happens to be. It’s easy, then, to see how conventional wisdom develops. If a bunch of really (usually only a few) smart people agree on something, then that something must be true.

Conventional wisdom is really just the reason of a crowd, and crowds are inherently irrational. As such, conventional wisdom should always be doubted. This does not mean that it should always be rejected, as the common argument may hold some validity, but it does suggest that all assumptions underpinning that argument should be at the least be questioned.

I bring this up because it’s become conventional wisdom that the GOP needs to back immigration reform in order to win Hispanics. A variant of this argument is that Hispanics are a large, socially conservative voting bloc. If the GOP supports some form of amnesty/open borders, they can win them in droves!

Except, it’s false. Not true. Invalid. Whatever word you want to use to represent falsehood, use it because the idea that the GOP is going to get Hispanic voters in large numbers within the reasonable future is simply bunk.

Here’s why

The border is not the only concern of Hispanics:

I frankly find it insulting that minority groups get pigeonholed into an issue, as if the wider spectrum of political issues is somehow off-limits to them. Pick the minority group, and there’s a single issue that they’re expected to vote on. Gay people – gay marriage. Women – abortion rights/birth control. Hispanics – citizenship. This one dimensional view towards minority groups treats them as exactly that, a group, and ignores the fact that they are individuals with different needs, wants, beliefs, and concerns.

And so, lazy thinking leads people to think that the predominate issue for Hispanics has to be the border. Never mind a whole host of other issues, including gun control, the cost of living, wages, civil liberties, national defense, the environment, and so on. I think there’s a subtle form of racism at play here. White people are expected to take into account the various political issues when voting, but if Hispanics or Blacks dare vote for a conservative politician due to placing a higher emphasis on issues not tantamount to their ethnicity, they are labeled as “voting against their race.” It’s absolutely disgusting, but it’s a popularly approved form of societal peer pressure.

Call me crazy, but I think Hispanic families and individuals face similar challenges that we all face. Wanting the best education for their kids, finding healthcare that is affordable, owning a home, receiving a rising paycheck, and being a part of a free and prosperous country are all things that Hispanic, and all American families, want. These issues matter to Hispanics, and as I’ll get to later, Hispanics line up against the GOP position in all of these issues.

Republicans seem to think that if they just back immigration reform, Hispanics will fall into line with their policy prescriptions in these other areas. That’s both simplistic and wrong.

I have numbers to back me up on this.

Healthcare, not immigration, is the number one issue for Hispanics in the US.

See here:


Unemployment is second. The border/immigration comes in third. Only 12% of Hispanic voters rate the border as their top priority.

At the last election, Hispanics turned out strongly for Obama. In this poll, linked here:


Six in ten Hispanic voters rated Obama as being better able to handle the economy, which was their top concern. Hispanic voters don't really care about the border, and that's a logical position to take. Since they are voters, they must have citizenship. Once you have citizenship, your concern for immigration naturally declines. You're already here, you're a citizen, why worry about your compatriots trying to enter this country, when you have more immediate and pressing concerns. 

Even if the GOP came out in favor of immigration reform, the Dems still outclass them on the issue:

People have memories. If immigration reform is your number one concern, and the GOP now comes out in favor of it, are you going to switch your ideological stance to supporting the GOP? Doubtful. Why would you suddenly join or support a party which opposed your pet issue for all of these years? Let’s look at a mirror example. Due to the popularity of the gun rights crowd, Dems are now increasingly abandoning their hard-line gun control stances. Yet, gun advocates still distrust Democrats. It’s extremely difficult for parties to out-party the other.

If the GOP embraces some form of moderate immigration reform, the Democrats will just move the goal posts further to the left, and continue to demagogue them. Ok, so you now support a pathway to citizenship? Why not full amnesty? So you now support full amnesty? Why not total open borders?

A GOP President granted amnesty before:

Assuming that your definition of Hispanic rights (When is the group based rights movement going to ever cease?) comes down to who supports amnesty, then who is the strongest backer of Hispanic rights in our history? Ronald Reagan, a Republican president.

In 1986, Ronald Reagan signed the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986, which legalized all immigrants who entered this country before 1982. In 1988, a mere two years later, Reagan’s vice president, George H. W. Bush, ran for president and won.

Pop quiz, what percent of the Hispanic vote did he win?

A measly 30%.

Anyone out there who thinks backing immigration reform is going to win votes for the Republicans, please explain this example.

By the way, Mitt Romney’s share of the Hispanic vote?

A measly 27%.

Hispanics are liberals:

Returning to the beginning of this post, conventional wisdom states that Hispanics are “natural Republicans, they just don’t know it yet.” They might be a fiscal liberals, but they sure are social conservatives!

For the record, the religious right has really bought into this line. See this link.

Ha!

Let’s look at some polling data.

Three out of ten Hispanics identify themselves as liberal, compared to two in ten Americans. Native Hispanics are more liberal than immigrant Hispanics, by 37% to 24%.

What about on abortion?

Take it away, Politico:

More than half, or 51 percent, of Hispanics told pollsters that abortion should be illegal in all or most cases, compared with 41 percent of the general population. But there is a divide among Hispanics — 58 percent of immigrants say abortion should be illegal, while 40 percent of second-generation and 43 percent of third-generation Hispanics agree.

And gay marriage? Sorry, religious right, you lose again. From the New York Times:

More than half of the nation’s Latinos are in favor of same-sex marriage, according to a survey released on Thursday, dispelling a long-standing notion that their religious beliefs offered a safe path to Republicans looking to stake a claim in the community through shared social values.
           
What about on economics? In another study, done by the Latino Decisions group, Hispanics are favor a larger government, increased government intervention, higher taxes, higher spending, and are skeptical of a more robust free market.

The link to this excellent report is here.

In short, Hispanics are progressives. Shocker.

Conclusion:

Is it possible for the GOP to win more of the Hispanic vote? Sure, but it’s a long, uphill struggle that involves changing a culture and deep held political beliefs. A simple vote on immigration reform isn't going to cut it.

And nor should it.