People are busy. I recognize that. Few have the necessary
spare hours per day to devote themselves to closely but accurately following
the constant march of political news. Legislators, the people we elect to do
exactly this task, don’t even have enough time to read their own legislation.
That job responsibility has been largely outsourced to the few hundred staffers
who author Congress' legislation.
A civic duty, however, compels people to pay at least some
attention to politics. So they read a few article here and there, and
occasionally scan an op-ed article. The rise of America’s punditocracy is
evidence of this fact. We now have an entire industry dedicated to forming
opinion on whatever the political issue of the day happens to be. It’s easy,
then, to see how conventional wisdom develops. If a bunch of really (usually
only a few) smart people agree on something, then that something must be true.
Conventional wisdom is really just the reason of a crowd, and crowds are inherently irrational. As such, conventional wisdom should always be doubted. This does not mean that it should always be rejected, as the common argument may hold some validity, but it does suggest that all assumptions underpinning that argument should be at the least be questioned.
Conventional wisdom is really just the reason of a crowd, and crowds are inherently irrational. As such, conventional wisdom should always be doubted. This does not mean that it should always be rejected, as the common argument may hold some validity, but it does suggest that all assumptions underpinning that argument should be at the least be questioned.
I bring this up because it’s become conventional wisdom that
the GOP needs to back immigration reform in order to win Hispanics. A variant
of this argument is that Hispanics are a large, socially conservative voting
bloc. If the GOP supports some form of amnesty/open borders, they can win them
in droves!
Except, it’s false. Not true. Invalid. Whatever word you
want to use to represent falsehood, use it because the idea that the GOP is
going to get Hispanic voters in large numbers within the reasonable future is
simply bunk.
Here’s why
The border is not the
only concern of Hispanics:
I frankly find it insulting that minority groups get pigeonholed into an issue, as if the wider spectrum of political issues is somehow off-limits to them. Pick the minority group, and there’s a single issue that they’re expected to vote on. Gay people – gay marriage. Women – abortion rights/birth control. Hispanics – citizenship. This one dimensional view towards minority groups treats them as exactly that, a group, and ignores the fact that they are individuals with different needs, wants, beliefs, and concerns.
I frankly find it insulting that minority groups get pigeonholed into an issue, as if the wider spectrum of political issues is somehow off-limits to them. Pick the minority group, and there’s a single issue that they’re expected to vote on. Gay people – gay marriage. Women – abortion rights/birth control. Hispanics – citizenship. This one dimensional view towards minority groups treats them as exactly that, a group, and ignores the fact that they are individuals with different needs, wants, beliefs, and concerns.
And so, lazy thinking leads people to think that the
predominate issue for Hispanics has to be the border. Never mind a whole host
of other issues, including gun control, the cost of living, wages, civil
liberties, national defense, the environment, and so on. I think there’s a
subtle form of racism at play here. White people are expected to take into
account the various political issues when voting, but if Hispanics or Blacks
dare vote for a conservative politician due to placing a higher emphasis on
issues not tantamount to their ethnicity, they are labeled as “voting against
their race.” It’s absolutely disgusting, but it’s a popularly approved form of
societal peer pressure.
Call me crazy, but I think Hispanic families and individuals
face similar challenges that we all face. Wanting the best education for their
kids, finding healthcare that is affordable, owning a home, receiving a rising
paycheck, and being a part of a free and prosperous country are all things that
Hispanic, and all American families, want. These issues matter to Hispanics,
and as I’ll get to later, Hispanics line up against the GOP position in all of
these issues.
Republicans seem to think that if they just back immigration reform, Hispanics will fall into line with their policy prescriptions in these other areas. That’s both simplistic and wrong.
Republicans seem to think that if they just back immigration reform, Hispanics will fall into line with their policy prescriptions in these other areas. That’s both simplistic and wrong.
I have numbers to back me up on this.
Healthcare, not immigration, is the number one issue for
Hispanics in the US.
See here:
See here:
Unemployment is second. The border/immigration comes in
third. Only 12% of Hispanic voters rate the border as their top priority.
At the last election, Hispanics turned out strongly for Obama. In this poll, linked here:
Six in ten Hispanic voters rated Obama as being better able
to handle the economy, which was their top concern. Hispanic voters don't really care about the border, and that's a logical position to take. Since they are voters, they must have citizenship. Once you have citizenship, your concern for immigration naturally declines. You're already here, you're a citizen, why worry about your compatriots trying to enter this country, when you have more immediate and pressing concerns.
Even if the GOP came
out in favor of immigration reform, the Dems still outclass them on the issue:
People have memories. If immigration reform is your number
one concern, and the GOP now comes out in favor of it, are you going to switch
your ideological stance to supporting the GOP? Doubtful. Why would you suddenly
join or support a party which opposed your pet issue for all of these years?
Let’s look at a mirror example. Due to the popularity of the gun rights crowd,
Dems are now increasingly abandoning their hard-line gun control stances. Yet,
gun advocates still distrust Democrats. It’s extremely difficult for parties to
out-party the other.
If the GOP embraces some form of moderate immigration reform, the Democrats will just move the goal posts further to the left, and continue to demagogue them. Ok, so you now support a pathway to citizenship? Why not full amnesty? So you now support full amnesty? Why not total open borders?
A GOP President granted amnesty before:
If the GOP embraces some form of moderate immigration reform, the Democrats will just move the goal posts further to the left, and continue to demagogue them. Ok, so you now support a pathway to citizenship? Why not full amnesty? So you now support full amnesty? Why not total open borders?
A GOP President granted amnesty before:
Assuming that your definition of Hispanic rights (When is
the group based rights movement going to ever cease?) comes down to who
supports amnesty, then who is the strongest backer of Hispanic rights in our
history? Ronald Reagan, a Republican president.
In 1986, Ronald Reagan signed the Immigration Reform and
Control Act of 1986, which legalized all immigrants who entered this country
before 1982. In 1988, a mere two years later, Reagan’s vice president, George
H. W. Bush, ran for president and won.
Pop quiz, what percent of the Hispanic vote did he win?
A measly 30%.
Pop quiz, what percent of the Hispanic vote did he win?
A measly 30%.
Anyone out there who thinks backing immigration reform is
going to win votes for the Republicans, please explain this example.
By the way, Mitt Romney’s share of the Hispanic vote?
A measly 27%.
By the way, Mitt Romney’s share of the Hispanic vote?
A measly 27%.
Hispanics are
liberals:
Returning to the beginning of this post, conventional wisdom
states that Hispanics are “natural
Republicans, they just don’t know it yet.” They might be a fiscal liberals,
but they sure are social conservatives!
For the record, the religious right has really bought into
this line. See
this link.
Ha!
Let’s look
at some polling data.
Three out of ten Hispanics identify themselves as liberal, compared to two in ten Americans. Native Hispanics are more liberal than immigrant Hispanics, by 37% to 24%.
What about on abortion?
Take it away, Politico:
More than half, or 51 percent, of Hispanics told pollsters that abortion should be illegal in all or most cases, compared with 41 percent of the general population. But there is a divide among Hispanics — 58 percent of immigrants say abortion should be illegal, while 40 percent of second-generation and 43 percent of third-generation Hispanics agree.
Three out of ten Hispanics identify themselves as liberal, compared to two in ten Americans. Native Hispanics are more liberal than immigrant Hispanics, by 37% to 24%.
What about on abortion?
Take it away, Politico:
More than half, or 51 percent, of Hispanics told pollsters that abortion should be illegal in all or most cases, compared with 41 percent of the general population. But there is a divide among Hispanics — 58 percent of immigrants say abortion should be illegal, while 40 percent of second-generation and 43 percent of third-generation Hispanics agree.
And gay marriage? Sorry, religious right, you lose
again. From the New
York Times:
More than half of the nation’s Latinos are in favor of same-sex marriage, according to a survey released on Thursday, dispelling a long-standing notion that their religious beliefs offered a safe path to Republicans looking to stake a claim in the community through shared social values.
More than half of the nation’s Latinos are in favor of same-sex marriage, according to a survey released on Thursday, dispelling a long-standing notion that their religious beliefs offered a safe path to Republicans looking to stake a claim in the community through shared social values.
What about on economics? In another study, done by the Latino Decisions group, Hispanics are favor a larger government, increased government intervention, higher taxes, higher spending, and are skeptical of a more robust free market.
The link to this excellent report
is here.
In short, Hispanics are progressives. Shocker.
Conclusion:
Is it possible for the GOP to win more of the Hispanic vote? Sure, but it’s a long, uphill struggle that involves changing a culture and deep held political beliefs. A simple vote on immigration reform isn't going to cut it.
And nor should it.
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