I have two pieces on my mind, this one and another one on a new type of morality I’m seeing emerge within my generation, but I’ll save the latter for later. Instead, I’d like to focus on the Paul Ryan pick and specifically the left’s reaction to it. I think there’s an interesting story there that’s not being told and which, in the due course of this post, I plan to tell.
Before we to that, just a few words on the politics of the Paul Ryan pick. As Will Ackell can attest, I was initially dismayed by the Paul Ryan pick for several reasons. I thought that he would sink Romney’s chances with seniors (Mediscare), lose Florida and possibly Ohio for Romney, and add little in the way of electoral gains. Who, I wondered, was Ryan’s natural demographic that he brought to the ticket? Not Latinos, not blacks, not women, no one except nerdy Wisconsinite wonks. I had every confidence in him to serve as Vice President, he has the intellect, gravitas, and competency to do the job well, but I thought his selection made him less likely to even get to that position. Now that he’s been chosen, I think I may have been wrong. He seems to be doing rather well in his politicking and campaigning, and anecdotally, I don’t think blue collar voters, or most independent voters, outright initially loathe him. After the Obama campaign ads come, that may all change. But so far, he has seemed to have done little harm.
On to my main point. In attempt to avoid epistemic closure, I always try to step outside the bubble of right wing thought and blogs and read columns, articles, facebook posts, and blog posts from those with apolitical, centrist, and leftwing views. If you want to get the pulse on the more flippant, dogmatic left, head over to Reddit’s politics section. If you want to get a hold of a more measured, thoughtful segment of the leftwing community, go to somewhere like the New Republic or the Atlantic. And if you want to read stupid nonsense because you hate yourself and your brain and eyes, go over to Newsweek and read whatever bile they barf up for that day.
Anyways, after the Paul Ryan decision I immediately scanned these sites to find that the left’s reaction to Ryan’s selection was mixed. On one hand, some welcomed his addition to the race, hoping that despite ideological disagreements, it would bring a much needed serious discussion to the campaign. On the other hand, the rank and file of the Democratic Party displayed a mixture of glee and indignation. He’s a Randian fanboy that wants to destroy the welfare state, they posted, and he’s going to sink Romney.
There are a lot of problems with Paul Ryan policy wise (his support of TARP, the auto bailouts, the Patriot Act, etc) but what he’s right on is the need to tackle entitlements. His plan can be debated and its relative merits and demerits weighed out and judged accordingly. Yet, it is intellectually dishonest and dangerous to the fiscal health of our nation to assume that entitlement programs can continue on, unreformed, indefinitely. Federal unfunded liabilities total some $86 trillion dollars. If you want an illustration of this problem, look no further than to this chart kindly provided by the Congressional Budget Office and painstakingly pasted by myself:
What you should be paying attention to is the lime green (they really picked an ugly color) line. This is what’s going to happen if we do nothing. Public debt will explode. Eventually, interest payments on this debt will consume an ever-widening portion of Federal spending, crowding out other forms of spending. And this is in the best case. If bond traders get particularly aggressive, it is highly possible although presently unlikely that investors could lose confidence in their faith of the US government’s ability to pay its debts. As such, they will bid interest rates up even higher, potentially leading to a Greek like situation at worst, or even less money available for spending on other areas. Imagine, if you would, the bulk of your tax dollars going not to services or education or medicare or defense or whatever it is you like that the Federal government does, but instead to bond holders.
This is a nightmare scenario, but unless something is done, it’s going to happen in some form. Paul Ryan, despite his many deficiencies, gets credit in my book for willing to tackle and engage with this issue. Even mentioning the word entitlements can cost a politico several thousand votes.
What confuses me though is that so many on the left refuse to even acknowledge that this problem exists. Despite this being an inherently political issue, recognizing that entitlements must be reformed in some manner should not require ideology or partisanship to make. This is a factual issue. You can be an outright communist and acknowledge that America’s entitlements are in a bad state. It’s like seeing a burning building. How does saying, oh look there is a fire, require the political part of your brain to fire off neurons? It doesn’t.
I’ve observed two reactions when I raise this issue in debate from leftwing people. First, refusal to even concede that there is a problem, or even an issue, or even a matter for slight concern. It’s all fuzzy math, they assert, designed by the right to scare people into passing austere and draconian cuts to the state. I won’t doubt that there is a political edge given to the right that comes from this fact set, but the facts still exist. If it were all an illusion, why are academics, bond traders, investors, economists, the CBO, Democratic politicians, and others all saying that it’s an actual problem? If this is some kind of grand conspiracy by the right, then why are so many non-political or leftist people raising the issue? The answer, of course, is the simplest one. It’s not a conspiracy, it actually exists, and something must be done.
The second reaction I’ve encountered is one of flippancy. Simply repeal the Bush tax cuts and raise taxes on the rich and, voila, problem solved. As the WSJ points out (I know, evil Murdoch, feel free to engage in your two minutes of hate), if we were to tax the income of millionaires and billionaires at 100%, then we would only have “$938 billion.” Ok, great job comrade, the rich have paid their fair share, now what? There’s still trillions more to go, and that’s only addressing the budget deficit, not to mention the trillions in future liabilities. Let’s put aside what disastrous effects taxing the rich at 100% would have on the economy (one doesn’t have to be an acolyte of Laffer to see that that would cause serious problems), and now let’s look to other forms of income. The poor? That doesn’t make sense, since we are giving them money and they are, well, poor. Ah yes, here’s a group that has lots of surplus income, the middle class! It is a sheer fact of reality that if you want entitlements to continue at their current rate, you have to raise taxes on the middle class (and even that might not solve it). Yet, you’ll find few politicians, and even fewer die hard leftists, willing to admit this. If we want the entitlement system to continue on as is, we need to have tax rates approaching the levels of our European peers. We cannot have our cake and eat it too.
And here, in closing, is where I don’t get why leftists are mocking and glibly dismissing Paul Ryan. The debate over entitlements is one we need to have. Reform will come, one way or another. Yet so far, in their refusal to acknowledge facts, the left has not shown up to the debate. Where is the Paul Ryan of the left? Let me say that again, where is the Paul Ryan of the left? Where is a policy proposal that reforms SS, Medicare, and Medicaid from the left wing perspective that doesn’t strictly rely on gimmicks such as raising taxes on the rich? Fine, raise taxes on the rich, and then what? The left is ignoring this issue at their peril. If they simply abstain from this debate, then they cede ground to the right allowing them to reframe reform on their grounds. In politics, first proposals count because they set the range on future and further proposals. In failing to offer serious policy proposals, the left continually cedes ground to the right.
So here is my advice to leftists, communists, socialists, Democrats, liberals, or whatever other grouping out there. Talk about entitlement reform. Talk about it a lot. Come up with and then talk about what you plan to do. Entitlement reform is coming, and now is the time to sow your ideological seeds on fertile ground. Laugh at, mock, demonize Paul Ryan if you wish, but make sure you have a Paul Ryan of your own. Who dares, wins.
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