One fact that I think a lot of people aren’t actively aware of is that the media, far from being objective presenters of news and information, are private businesses with their own views and goals. News companies, whether they take the form of local news stations, newspapers, or cable news channels such as Fox News or MSNBC, have to make a profit. To make this profit, they need readers or viewers. Thus, it is in the interest of the media to make every story as interesting and dramatic as possible. This little recognized fact applies especially for political campaigns.
A presidential election in which one candidate has an
insurmountable lead would be of little interest to the average person, and thus
bad news for media companies. A presidential election that was neck and neck
would be of far greater interest to the average person. Why? In such a
scenario, the average person is now the average voter as well. With this in
mind, the typical person pays more attention to the race (by consuming more
news) in the hope that his or her vote carries a greater weight. In general,
media companies of all political persuasions have it within their interest to
portray, or through their coverage make, elections far closer than they should
be.
With this in mind, let’s look at the Republican primary.
Today is Super Tuesday, the one day where the stars and primaries align. The
largest amount of delegates are awarded today (I’m too lazy to find the exact
amount) and the results of today’s elections will be extremely important in
setting tone and pace for the rest of the 2012 primary race. That said, I think
the Republican primary is largely over, and the question remaining is not a
question of who, but of when.
Mitt Romney, since the beginning of the Republican primary,
has had the organization, money, and support network to create a truly national
and sustained campaign. Despite the Republican base (and now independents)
general feelings of apathy, or in some cases, dislike toward Romney, he has
been the only candidate with the organization necessary to run a serious
campaign. The other candidates lack the internal organization and discipline of
the Romney campaign. Romney’s bet, which is looking like it will pay off, was
to build an election machine first, beating the other competitors through sheer
attrition. The only question in the Republican primary race was whether
conservatives and the anti-Romney crowd could coalesce before it was too late behind
a not-Romney candidate. I say too late, because as I just mentioned,
organization matters. The non-Romney candidate would have to be the consensus
choice for a while in order to build up the staff, money, and organization necessary
to beat back the Romney machine.
But this didn’t happen. Or rather, it happened too late. The
rise of Santorum came far too late in the game for him to become a credible
not-Romney. Gingrich’s continued anemic presence in the race prevents Santorum
from making up for a deficit in organization with a majority of anti-Romney
votes. Instead, Romney is able to cobble together a plurality, with the
anti-Romney majority split between Santorum and Gingrich.
As I said before, the question now is not who, since I think
that question has largely been settled in favor of Romney, but when. By when, I
mean when is this primary going to be over. If Santorum wins today in Ohio (and
Ohio is the main state you should be watching tonight), then the primary gets
dragged out even more. Romney still wins, but he becomes even more bloodied,
even more weak. If Romney can win Ohio, it destroys the narrative for Santorum
(that he can win among blue collar, Midwestern voters) which will result in a
far sooner effective end to the primary.
Either way, the main question of
the primary, who do we nominate, has been settled. Why then are we hearing so
much about a concluded primary that never seems to end? Well, for that answer,
I refer you back to the beginning of this post.
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